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I should write something
In PostsIt’s been a while since I wrote something, and things are being a bit dull and unproductive lately. But I prefer not to write about that.
I was scrolling through twitter a few days back (and I must admit I’ve been scrolling it too much lately) and I was like tired, like why are they all fighting over petty things. And the fights had the kind of arguments you would see in fights of 7 year old kids. It was weird and strange, and I’m thinking about deactivating my twitter too after my linkedin.
But anyways, I checked out WhatsApp statuses today morning, and realized its independence day. The updates were not unexpected. There was one video clip with title like how this independence day hits different because of the last Pak-India conflict, and it contained videos of military fighter jets, etc. Some other templatish posts. Then a few lads cursing the country and mocking how we are celebrating independence in slavery, etc.
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Strangely, my response on all such things have been turned off in head. I watch/hear this stuff and I only get tired. Reality is complex. Our minds have an innate tendency to oversimplify things so that they can fit in in our framework of reality. It takes some sort of mental energy to go against this tendency and ask yourself, wait a minute; is there a detail I’m missing? but when we ask this question, and try to find out answers, we almost always find out there is some subtlety, some nuance, some detail that we are missing, and that expands our framework of reality, or in other terms, our worldview. People who ask this more and more, get their worldview expand in complexity and detail. When they see any oversimplified notion, they want to point out, hey, I see you have a point here, but there is some other detail you’re missing. I’m not with or against your view, but I want you to notice, that whatever your view is, it is flawed or incomplete if you do not incorporate this element into the perspective as well. They do point out early on but soon realize how pointless it is.
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But to scratch the itch, they want to say something nonetheless, so they write blogposts no one reads.
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We owe a great deal of human progress and innovation to a small proportion of individuals who had very extreme and contrarian takes, about things that mattered. I think a disease in our society is that we have extreme takes about all the things that don’t matter, and none about the things that matter.
Live in a city, talk to people (or just open up a social media feed that hasn’t been personalized in favor of your own views), and you will find out there is a ridiculously high amount of matters of public debate, about which people have opinions — and very extreme opinions. But ask them if they have a principle of practical value — something that they have vowed themselves to follow under all circumstances, and most of them would have none.
To give an example, a principle of practical value could be something as simple as I will never litter in public, not even a tissue paper. This is a rather simple principle, but you see it has practical value. The world is marginally a better place because you decided to walk a few yards and throw the wrapper in the trash can. But if you have an opinion about most of matters of public debate, the chances are that your having any opinion about that is definitely not going to have any practical value for anyone, or probably, the expected outcome is net negative, because you might increase the amount of argument or conflicts among people, or at-least waste your time if nothing else.
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I think what a person should do is this.
1. Upon a matter of public debate, ask yourself does this issue matter?
“Suppose in the future there is a movement to ban the color yellow. Proposals to paint anything yellow are denounced as “yellowist”, as is anyone suspected of liking the color. People who like orange are tolerated but viewed with suspicion. Suppose you realize there is nothing wrong with yellow. If you go around saying this, you’ll be denounced as a yellowist too, and you’ll find yourself having a lot of arguments with anti-yellowists. If your aim in life is to rehabilitate the color yellow, that may be what you want. But if you’re mostly interested in other questions, being labelled as a yellowist will just be a distraction.” -pg
2. If yes, ask yourself, what is x’s take and what is y’s take and what are they both missing? This will expand your worldview to hold more nuance.
3. When you’ve understand the nuances of the issue, work out a theory of change for the issue.
“People want to make the world a better place. But how? [X] says I can change the direction of the country by voting for him. [Y] says I can solve the climate crisis with a letter to the editor. [Z] says I can stop George W. Bush by signing their petition. Perhaps, but these requests ring hollow. How is writing a letter to my local paper going to stop the polar ice caps from melting?
Most groups have a couple steps at the end (switch to alternative energy, stopping carbon from being emitted, preventing global warming) and a couple steps at the beginning (write your congressman and send a letter to the paper) but in between they seem to expect that some kind of miracle will happen. They’re missing the concrete steps in between, the actual way we get from here to there.
In the nonprofit world, such a plan is called a Theory of Change. And the reason they’re so rare is because they’re dreadfully hard to come by. The world has no shortage of big problems, but it’s hard to think of ways we might realistically solve them. Instead, the same few things — vote, preach, march — get trotted out again and again.”
4. By now, you will either realize that (a) the problem is solvable but you don’t care about it enough to spend the effort required to solve it, or (b) in the given circumstances, the problem is not solvable in its entirety and you can only solve a portion of it, and then again, you may or may not care enough about it to actually spend time and energy solving it, or (c) the problem is entirely solvable and you do care about it enough that justifies the amount of the effort required by it (mostly, its not because you care about that thing too much but because the effort it takes is not too much).
If the thing got knocked out in the questions, congrats, you’ve saved yourself (and probably others) a lot of time, and if turns out not to, well, maybe you should get working.
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Meaningful Help
In PostsI was wondering about how regarding certain things that are my area of expertise (relative to general public, not expertise in absolute terms), I would have loved to help other people if they required that specific kind of help, but the thing I had in mind was very specific, and people generally aren’t interested in such kind of things, and the few who might be, might not think about asking someone’s help regarding it. This made me think about the human nature. People who are expert in certain areas can do things related to it with very little effort compared to other people, and generally, they love to help other people with those things (specially if they are niche things). The emotional pleasure that humans derive from providing such help is sometimes so great, that it won’t be wrong to say that the person who is asking for help is actually doing favor to the one whom they are asking from.
But this made me wonder how this is not the case with all kinds of help. I myself has been asked for help with some sorts of things and I have hated it, and this is true for other people I have observed as well. The very same people like providing certain kind of help and dislike providing some other kinds of help. What’s the distinguishing factor? There are multiple, like how close that other person is to you, how much you enjoy that specific kind of thing, how effortless is the task. But these things, I suppose, are secondary.
The primary factor, I believe, is one’s perception of how meaningful will be their help to the other person. This can overshadow all other factors. If, suppose, someone likes making apps and a friend tells him they have an idea for an app, and asks him to help them develop it, he might not enjoy helping his friend if he thinks the idea doesn’t make any sense. On the other hand, the same person might see a stranger on road with a flat tire who asks him for help with something, and he might feel good being able to help that stranger even though he is not a mechanic and he doesn’t know the person needing help but because he thinks that help might actually make a difference to a person having a rough day. An edge case where this might not be applicable is if the person being asked for help is suppose, a teacher who might miss a class, but his not offering help would be because to him, providing that meaningful help might prevent him from doing some other meaningful work that he is obliged to do.
Not all people follow the same pattern, but I think it is a good enough approximation for people with a sound moral compass. So, what can we deduce from this? Firstly, one’s perception of meaningfulness of the help they are offering might influence how they feel about it. This means that if you truly care about something and the task really means something for you (which doesn’t necessarily means it should be something grand), you shouldn’t hesitate about asking someone for help as they might actually feel good being able to help you. Secondly, we as humans are biased about helping others based on our perception. Our assumption about how meaningful or impactful our help is for the person might be flawed, so we should try to gain more clarity about this in whatever way appropriate (sometimes explicitly asking the other person works, sometimes you might need to choose another path). Lastly, I observe this strange phenomenon of meaningless work. It certainly is a strange fact how one’s mere perception about the impact of their work can make them feel about their work. Thus, it is no wonder how some people absolutely love their work and others loathe it. If only people who loathe their work could know how they would feel doing something more meaningful to them, they might not stay long where they are.
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On Arbitrariness of Labels
In NotesThere’s something fundamentally wrong with classifications/categories/genres or as you can call them generally, labels. What’s wrong about them is two-fold. People’s inability to understand the arbitrariness of the process of putting things into different buckets to the extent that they don’t like things which aren’t too easy to put into a bucket, and also people who create things that are too easy to put in a bucket. Labels (classification / genres / categorization) rarely do justice with a good work.
I wanted to specify it down, but I am unable too. Every good creative work (book/movie/game/whatever) has such of its identity derived from its unique idiosyncracy that it feels wrong to use the regular labels with them.
But the strange thing about this is that labels are useful. They serve a useful function to make a lot of information manageable, which makes me realize that the problem arises when people start giving labels more importance than what they hold, and that probably happens because most of mass content has too little of an identity of its own that defining them with labels become the norm.
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RIP SBP Data Authenticity ft. Aaj ke hisaab se
In UpdatesEdit: I later found out the mistake was my own. Details in end.
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Today was the first time, the intertemporal currency value converter I had made a while ago came to my use, when during a phone call with my father, I instantaneously converted a past amount he mentioned to its current value, and I told him about this, and he liked the idea. When I told him, that for present value it’s using 2024’s last quarter gold prices to compare against historic gold prices, he asked me to get present gold price updated and share it with him. This time, I figured out extracting data from Business Recorder is pretty straightforward using an AJAX call that the webpage was making under the hood.
Last time, I wasn’t able to find out a good source for recent data. Since, BR had this data since 2011, I thought about comparing it with the data from SBP that I had used in conversion in my converter, and voila, the two data series are not validating each other.
The price growth rates for the two sources are not even remotely close.
And then they say, I am too paranoid about data sources.Now, what am I supposed to do plug in my converter? Does authentic data even exist?——-Edit 14/07/25: So, I found out the data from both sources is actually consistent. The issue was how I was grouping it. The SBP Handbook explicitly mentioned the years were fiscal years. But when grouping BR data to get annual average, I had grouped by annual year instead of fiscal year. When I grouped BR data by fiscal year, it was pretty much the same.PS. None of this matters because I think my decision to use gold prices as deflator was pretty stupid one, because gold prices have increased much more sharply then overall prices, probably because demand for gold was not much high pre-2000 but it increased sharply in the next 2 decades; that’s my hypothesis. But anyways, I have found old CPI data for Pakistan, and will plug it when I find time.
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Miyazaki’s movies & kids not being taken seriously
In NotesAn interesting pattern Nabeel Qureshi mentions about what makes Miyazaki’s movies so special:
[00:10:22] Dan: Another director you cited that you love before, Miyazaki. What do you think that he understands that maybe Disney, other animation studios are overlooking, and they don’t quite get?
[00:10:31] Nabeel: Oh, yes. This is one of my favorite topics. I think Miyazaki just makes movies for adults that are also for children. He really takes children seriously as full beings, if you will. That’s very important. If you watch interviews with him, he’s always saying, I think kids have a very good sense of the issues that we think of as adult issues. Life and death is a simple example. Even a movie that’s relatively on the child-like side of his canon, like My Neighbor Totoro, it’s actually a pretty serious plot because the mother is on the verge of death, and she’s sick the whole time. It’s showing how these two children cope with that.
Another example is Kiki’s Delivery Service. It’s charming, right? It’s this teenage girl, she’s going to become a witch, and she’s going to learn to fly. I feel like Disney would take this in a very whimsical childlike direction. Actually, it’s a drag, she moves to this Stockholm-like city. She has to get a job and work. It’s a grind. She gets sick. Nobody cares about her. There’s all these things that happen that you wouldn’t really expect to happen in a kid’s movie. Yes, I think his secret is he takes children very, very seriously, which I think most adults do not by default. He makes movies for children as though they were fully conscious beings. [Emphasis Mine]
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Writing raw vs processed thoughts
In PostsIt was interesting that I just simply had to nudge FA that he should write down his thoughts somewhere on the internet, and he would start doing that. It was easier in his case, because there was no need to convince or explain him, he already knew why he should be doing that. So, this was already something he thought, he should be doing, but as is the reality of this world, just desiring things or thinking that things should be a certain way, does not automatically translate into actually doing that thing. Other than reason or desire, one also needs to be agentic about actually doing that thing for that thing to be done, and sometimes, even the generally high-agency people need some sort of nudge to start doing the thing that they themselves think they should be doing. For this reason, I think, nudging people into doing something that they themselves think they should be doing is a good thing, and more people should be doing this.
Anyways, that was the preface. What I actually was thinking about, was the difference between writing raw/unprocessed thoughts and structured/processed thoughts. If you have read about Visakan‘s ideas about it, notably do 100 things, he leans more on the idea of writing unprocessed thoughts and just doing things which is basically a better version of quantity leads to quality thing. On the other hand, if you have read Henrik Karlsson‘s work, notably the essay where he explains that the conventional internet wisdom of quantity leads to quality is flawed, and Anu Atluru’s work, notably Make Something Heavy, you might have impression that one should spend more time into processing his writings before publishing them.
Now that I am thinking about how to phrase what’s in my mind, different frameworks are coming, so let’s try them one by one.
If you actually read all these essays, you will realize there are differences in the context in which all of them are talking about. Visa is talking about doing something in a sense of enjoying the thing itself:
“Do 100 Crappy Things For No Reason, With No Agenda To Live Up To, At Whatever Pace Feels Comfortable, However You Like.”
While, if you read Henrik, he is framing it completely in his own personal context of doing writing that leads him to better thinking:
“I also don’t think that optimizing for growth is a healthy way to write; a better metric for me is how much my thinking improves.”
Meanwhile, if you read Anu Atluru, you realize, she is talking about creating something heavy — something meaningful and durable, in a broader sense but around context of current internet culture running on light things, resulting in this strange feeling of unfulfillment caused by not creating something heavy. So she has framed it as sort of a counter-effect of that internet culture, however, she also hints in between on the cycles of creation process.
“At any given time, you’re either pre–heavy thing or post–heavy thing… Your gut knows what state you’re in. And the cycle repeats… No one wants to stay in light mode forever. Sooner or later, everyone gravitates toward heavy mode—toward making something with weight. Your life’s work will be heavy. Finding the balance of light and heavy is the game.”
“Weight is not restricted to “work” in a traditional sense but to every arena of meaning.”
Actually that incorporates both the frameworks I had in my mind which were:
- Understand the context or framework of thinking of the author and see how they apply to your own specific context, if they do.
- When an author makes a point, they are specifically framing it in context of people who are on a certain side of a specific point of reference. If you are standing on the other side of that point of reference, that specific framing might not apply to you even though the underlying concept of the author is totally valid.
If I think about my own personal context specifically regarding writing, the closest it is, is to Henrik’s context. But I had been having this problem that when I intended to write processed thoughts, my mind would auto start processing those thoughts before I had the time to even write them out, and what resulted was that I would not be able to think about them in a concrete and structured way because the thoughts remained as vague pre-concepts in mind without being materialized into type. So for me, the first step was to first build the habit of being able to write down the thoughts first, because when I did that, no matter if they were much processed or not, I was able to restructure or reframe that idea in my mind later on could see the flaws where they were.
This was a reasoning behind my idea of starting to write in weblog instead of my earlier idea of writing essays. However, even for me being able to write a weblog (where thoughts being properly structured is not a strict requirement), there were some hidden intermediaries, which were my physical diary and a secret blog I had shared with no one else. Interestingly, Henrik despite being inclined to writing processed thoughts, realized that it too had its benefit:
What has delighted me about the shit blog is how abundant it has made me feel. I sit down and type as fast as I can, and the results—well, they suck, but they don’t suck that much. They have a certain breeziness and some insights, too—insights of a different kind than I have in the serious essays. Which means I have underestimated my capacity! I can actually just sit down, without energy, without ideas, and if I frame the task in the right way, I can extract something of value from myself. The sense of scarcity I felt previously—feeling that to write the actual essays, I needed hours of high energy, which is scarce since we homeschool our kids, and I work, and the 2-year-old wakes up at night screaming, and feeling, because of this, that I needed to use my limited energy on good ideas—this feeling of scarcity has, I realize, kept me from doing more and better work.
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Certain about means, uncertain about end, and vice versa
In PostsSince I’m about to graduate in a while, and since these are the times when a lot of people start asking you about your future plans, I thought to write about this. Though most of the people are such that you just have to give them an artificial answer to satisfy them because they are not in the mood of trying to understand the idea I want to convey, there are also some people who are in this mood, and so I might be sharing this with them.
Most of the things we do are a means to a certain end. What happens many a time is that people get so engrossed in trying to figure out the means that they do not give much thought about exactly what kind of end they would want to achieve, and thus it’s no wonder that many a times, when people end up achieving the exact end that they themselves wanted years ago, they regret it, or at-least do not like it as much as they thought they would.
So, I believe it’s a better thing to start from the end, and then retrace back the means. But there are issues with this approach as well. Because when most people think about an end, they are not thinking about the true end itself but also another means a level high up. For instance, if you ask college students about what kind of work do they ideally want, they would list out different sorts of careers, but what they are actually targeting via any specific career path is a vague concept of the work that would allow them live their ideal kind of life. For instance, two persons might want to adopt two different careers, but both are actually targeting careers that allow them to make the most amount of money, but even making most of money is a means for another end, one of which could be to lead a comfortable life, or another could be to have a certain status in society.
Living a comfortable life or having status in society etc. are actually very simplistic notions, but I’m mentioning them because these are the closest thing to a true end that most people would have thought about their work. In reality, targeting for one or two concrete variables to optimize their life for, is often not a good idea, and subconsciously, people try to optimize against a wide range of preferences with different priority and weightage.
Now, the apparent problem with these preferences is that they change over time. But first, it needs to be realized that a lot of times, what changes over time is not your underlying preferences about the kind of life you want to live, but rather your reasoning about adopting what means allow you to optimize for those underlying preferences. Now, when I think about the instances when your underlying preferences actually change, it’s only because of you having imperfect information, sometimes about the world and sometimes about yourself. In some of the cases, this information gap can be somewhat improved by thinking out about these things in a structured manner, but the true bridging of this gap happens in the real world, when you actually dip your toes in the water. So, the solution, to the changing preferences problem is to increase the surface area of interaction of your inner self with the external world and then being actually thoughtful and perceptive about those interactions so that you gather maximum information about your inner reality and the external reality and their interaction. In other words, it can be said, you have to speed-run experimentation around your life, but not in a blind manner, but rather a perceptive and thoughtful manner, so that your learnings from the previous experiments guide you about what next to experiment.
This was a very long tangent, but I think it can be used as a fair enough idea for explaining where I currently stand.
Over the last three years, I have been doing experimentations, but initially I was not very thoughtful about them, and I was definitely not speed-running them, however, over the years, it has improved. Owing to these, I have got some idea of my underlying preferences or the true end I would want to achieve, however, I have yet to figure out what exact form of work would allow me to optimize for them.
The words means and the end give the impression that one follows the other in time. But if we consider, a given point in time, or a certain kind of life one is living, then we can distinguish that certain form into two things, let’s call them essence and the body. The body represents a specific concrete form of exterior reality, while essence represents the core idea which is abstract and sort of undefinable in a sense — something difficult to enclose in a jar of words.
So, I have somewhat learned about the essence of the kind of things I would want to work on in life, but I am trying to figure out what exactly the specific body or structure of the work would look like.
Now, that I am thinking, maybe, that essence is not actually that undefinable. There are a certain elements of it which are difficult to structure out in words, but still a lot of it can still be structured out in words. It seems I wrote that this was undefinable because I did not want to define it, either here in this blogpost, or maybe I was just playing around with myself not wanting to think structurally about it, or maybe, that phrasing “difficult to enclose in a jar of words” was interesting enough that I did not want to delete it, but anyway, I think this pretty much sums up about my current situation.
I have got an intuitive sense of the kind of work I would want to do in life, but I have no idea of specifics of that yet. Maybe, I will try to wordify this intuitive sense some other time.
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Playing the Devil’s Advocate
In UpdatesI noticed on Saturday while talking with a good teacher, that I play something like Devil’s Advocate pretty often. This happens specifically when discussing about things I have given a good enough thought but I have still been unable to form confident conclusion about any particular side.
I think this practice is helpful in the sense that it allows one to explore various points in the explanation-space of a specific problem or phenomenon in order to ultimately find out which point in that complex space is closer to the truth.
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Ideal Weblog Platform
In UpdatesBlogger is not the right platform for a tech person to use for long-term. It is only good for non-tech people. If someone has the technical expertise the best way is to compose the blog posts as .md files on Obsidian or VS code and have a static site generator convert them into html files to host somewhere.
But there is one major flaw I have seen in all SSGs is their closed look. By default all of these have an index of posts (maybe along with some excerpts) but not an open feed view of the weblog. This exactly is why Blogger felt compelling to me. This old-school bloggish feeling is not just about nostalgia, there’s an open feel to it, because you don’t get a list of posts that you can open if you wish to. Rather, you automatically get a feed of recent posts by which you get to know what the person has been recently upto. Interestingly, Substack also has this feature but this is specifically an issue with the idea of weblog and not essays, it isn’t much useful there.
Consider the experience of reading a book. You randomly swift through pages, and if something catches your attention, you stop and read around. You do not first have to select a topic from the TOC to decide what to read. Weblog should be like this, where entries are open by default, and the homepage should be a feed of atleast around 20 recent entries from which the person can swift through by scrolling. And if someone wants a list of entries, there should be a table of content for that too (which is something blogger is missing).
Also, I still need to think whether I would want /essays or /weblog in subdomain of the site or in the slug. This is difficult to decide.
I am leaning towards latter because the written content is supposed to be the substantial thing on weblog.tamseel.pk/. What else am I thinking of having on my site? I can’t think of anything. So, why not have it under the main site. Because different subdomain is kind of a different site.
Apparently, it seems no pre-cooked solution would satisfy my needs. I will have to tinker with these SSGs to specifically achieve what I want. I can’t tolerate Blogger’s stupidly long permalinks for long.
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Vibe Researching
In NotesEven though I don’t like it for myself, I thought about trying to do a full-fledged thesis work for a friend with the help of LLM. But unfortunately, I failed. Either it was a prompting skill-issue or that LLMs haven’t reached that state yet.
My thoughts lean towards the latter. Although Claude is fairly good at writing functional code to achieve the desired result, it like its counterparts is not even nearly close at understanding statistical nuances. I think, it’s about datasets and training. Training dataset even for complex programming problems is, I suppose, available in plenty amount, and all the documentations for programming languages do not have any conflicts. But firstly, the training amount on real world dirty statistics is available in less amount, and that different textbooks are written for different levels of understanding. And many a times, different authors use different terminologies for same things, and…
My brain’s auto-forming connections with former thoughts, but yeah, LLMs basically extract the concepts from labels, and wherever the labels are not universally consensually defined for concepts, it might give LLMs a hard time extracting the concepts.
I don’t think there’s something fundamentally different about statistics. If it’s tacit so is programming. The only thing I can think of is the log, or in other words, data for training. Getting LLMs to do non-nonsensical statistical work by giving them published research papers, will only be as good as showing LLMs only the GUIs or command outputs of programs instead of actually including the code for the program in the training dataset.
The concept of reproducibility in research does have been something people have started to talk about, but still, it’s scarce. What we need is a log of statistician — something like a field diary, which contains all assumptions, hypothesis, decisions, the rationale behind decisions, the bad results, the deciding of an alternate route, or in short, the whole truthful process of the work. And I believe it’s not limited to statisticians only. More fields should be giving a thought about getting the tacit ideas documented down somewhere, so that we are able to build better LLMs.